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CancerIndex

Rankings

Rankings

Every ranking is one metric, in one scope (geography · sex · age · year · entity level), under one formula version. No composite 'worst cancer' score is published in this phase.

24 of 25 metrics currently have a computed snapshot.

"Deadliest cancer" has no single answer. Annual deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, mortality-to-incidence ratio and 5-year survival each rank cancers differently and are published as separate metrics. Pick the question before reading the table.

Category

Burden

MetricUnitDirectionScopesSnapshotsSourcesFormula version
Age-standardized incidence rate

Incidence per 100,000 person-years, age-standardized to the standard population declared by the source. Rates standardized to different standard populations are never compared in one ranking.

per 100,000higher = worsegeography, sex, year75cdc-wonderseeriarc-globocanci-asir-v1
Age-standardized mortality rate

Deaths per 100,000 person-years, age-standardized to the standard population declared by the source.

per 100,000higher = worsegeography, sex, year78cdc-wonderseeriarc-globocanci-asmr-v1
Annual deaths

Number of deaths with this cancer as underlying cause in the reference year for the population scope.

counthigher = worsegeography, sex, age_group, year78cdc-wonderseeriarc-globocanci-mortality-count-v1
Annual new cases

Number of new cases diagnosed in the reference year for the population scope. Registry counts are observed; national/global figures may be estimates and are labeled as such.

counthigher = worsegeography, sex, age_group, year75cdc-wonderseeriarc-globocanci-incidence-count-v1

Category

Lethality

MetricUnitDirectionScopesSnapshotsSourcesFormula version
5-year relative survival

5-year relative survival for the diagnosis period and population declared by the source. Population survival statistics do not predict an individual outcome.

%higher = bettergeography, sex, diagnosis_period—seerci-5ys-v1
Mortality-to-incidence ratio

Deaths divided by new cases in the same population, year and sex. A crude proxy of lethality; it is not a survival probability and is affected by incidence trends and registration completeness.

ratiohigher = worsegeography, sex, year75cdc-wonderseeriarc-globocanci-mir-v1

Category

Clinical research

MetricUnitDirectionScopesSnapshotsSourcesFormula version
Active clinical trials

Interventional studies registered on ClinicalTrials.gov whose overall status is RECRUITING, NOT_YET_RECRUITING, ENROLLING_BY_INVITATION or ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING and whose conditions map to this cancer or one of its descendants in the NCIt hierarchy.

counthigher = betterentity_level2clinicaltrialsci-active-trials-v1
Active Phase III trials

Active interventional studies with PHASE3 among their phases, mapped to this cancer or its descendants.

counthigher = betterentity_level2clinicaltrialsci-phase3-trials-v1
Recruiting clinical trials

Interventional studies currently RECRUITING whose conditions map to this cancer or its descendants.

counthigher = betterentity_level2clinicaltrialsci-recruiting-trials-v1
Recruiting Phase III trials

Interventional studies with PHASE3 among their phases and overall status RECRUITING, mapped to this cancer or its descendants.

counthigher = betterentity_level2clinicaltrialsci-phase3-recruiting-v1
Sponsor concentration (HHI)

Herfindahl–Hirschman index of lead sponsors over active interventional studies (sum of squared sponsor shares; 1 = a single sponsor). Requires ≥ 10 active studies.

index (0–1)neutralentity_level2clinicaltrialsci-sponsor-hhi-v1
Trial termination share

Share of interventional studies first posted since 2010 that ended TERMINATED or WITHDRAWN among those that reached a terminal status (COMPLETED, TERMINATED, WITHDRAWN). Registrant-reported statuses; reasons are shown as posted and never inferred. Requires ≥ 30 terminal studies.

ratiohigher = worseentity_level2clinicaltrialsci-trial-termination-v1

Category

Research activity

MetricUnitDirectionScopesSnapshotsSourcesFormula version
Publications, last 12 months

PubMed records matching the cancer’s query with a publication date in the last 12 months.

counthigher = betterentity_level2pubmedci-pubs-12m-v1
Publications, last 5 years

PubMed records matching the cancer’s MeSH-anchored query (stored verbatim with the count) with a publication date in the last 5 full years plus the current year.

counthigher = betterentity_level2pubmedci-pubs-5y-v1

Category

Trends

MetricUnitDirectionScopesSnapshotsSourcesFormula version
Publication growth

Ratio of publications in the last 12 months to the average annual publications over the preceding 5-year window. Values above 1 indicate accelerating literature.

rationeutralentity_level2pubmedci-pub-growth-v1
Trial registration growth (year over year)

Relative change in the number of interventional studies first posted in the last 12 months versus the preceding 12 months, over the cancer and its descendants. Requires at least 20 studies in the prior window so small denominators do not produce spurious growth.

rationeutralentity_level2clinicaltrialsci-trial-growth-v1

Category

Molecular knowledge

MetricUnitDirectionScopesSnapshotsSourcesFormula version
Curated clinical evidence items

Accepted CIViC evidence items whose disease maps to this cancer or its descendants.

counthigher = betterentity_level2civicci-civic-evidence-v1
Genes with curated or cohort evidence

Distinct genes linked to this cancer (or descendants) by an accepted CIViC evidence item or by a GDC cohort frequency of at least 5% with ≥ 20 affected cases.

counthigher = betterentity_level2civicgdcci-genes-v1
Public genomic cohorts

Open-access genomic studies (GDC projects) whose disease maps to this cancer or its descendants.

counthigher = betterentity_level2gdcci-cohorts-v1

Category

Gap indexes

MetricUnitDirectionScopesSnapshotsSourcesFormula version
Active trials per 1,000 annual deaths

Active interventional studies divided by annual deaths (thousands) in the same population scope. A burden-normalized measure of clinical-research intensity; it depends on the epidemiology source of the scope and on how registrants phrase conditions.

per 1,000 deathshigher = bettergeography, year78clinicaltrialscdc-wondercdc-uscsseeriarc-globocanci-trials-per-deaths-v1
Publications (5 y) per 1,000 annual deaths

PubMed records over the last 5 years divided by annual deaths (thousands) in the same population scope. A burden-normalized measure of research output.

per 1,000 deathshigher = bettergeography, year78pubmedcdc-wondercdc-uscsseeriarc-globocanci-pubs-per-deaths-v1
Research Gap Index

Burden percentile minus research-activity percentile (publications, last 5 years) within the same scope. Positive values flag cancers with high mortality burden but comparatively little literature. Caveat (Phase 1): literature counts are query-based per entity (query stored on each row); they are not aggregated over descendants.

percentile pointshigher = worsegeography, year78pubmedcdc-wonderseeriarc-globocanci-research-gap-v1
Research Gap Ratio

log₂ of a cancer’s share of deaths divided by its share of publications (last 5 years), both over the eligible top-level cancers of the scope. 0 = literature share matches death share; positive values flag comparatively under-published cancers. Caveat: literature counts are query-based per entity and not aggregated over descendants.

log₂ ratiohigher = worsegeography, year78pubmedcdc-wondercdc-uscsseeriarc-globocanci-research-gap-ratio-v1
Trial Gap Index

Burden percentile minus active-trial percentile within the same scope. Positive values flag cancers with high mortality burden but comparatively few active trials. A quantitative signal, not an accusation (CLAUDE.md §324). Caveat (Phase 1): trial counts aggregate a cancer and its NCIt descendants only; registrations phrased at a broader level (e.g. "colorectal cancer" for colon and rectal cancer) are attributed to the broader entity, which can overstate the gap of narrower top-level sites.

percentile pointshigher = worsegeography, year78clinicaltrialscdc-wonderseeriarc-globocanci-trial-gap-v1
Trial Gap Ratio

log₂ of a cancer’s share of deaths divided by its share of active interventional trials, both computed over the eligible top-level cancers of the scope. 0 = trial share matches death share; +1 = twice as many deaths as trials would suggest; −1 = half. Scale-free, so it can be compared across scopes, unlike the percentile-based Trial Gap Index.

log₂ ratiohigher = worsegeography, year78clinicaltrialscdc-wondercdc-uscsseeriarc-globocanci-trial-gap-ratio-v1